Solutions to Ending Isis and Al-Qaida

From the selection of solutions from Cronin’s Endings we’ve selected:

Al-Qaida-Decapitation: catching or killing the leader

However, we tried that with Osama bin Ladin, but a new leader rose from that, so the likelihood of success is not great.

Isis-Internal Disintegration

A very focused and consistent strategy of containment can be effective in reducing the growth and effectiveness of Isis as a threat:

As a strategy to disrupt the growth of Isis, I suggest focusing on four arenas:

1. Counter the narrative in online Isis recruitment videos – including professionally made videos and amateur battle selfies – to avoid, as best as possible, the deliberate propaganda targeting of desperate and disaffected youth. This would rapidly prevent the recruitment of regional and western members.
2. Set clear, temporary borders in the region, publicly. This would discourage Isis from taking certain territory where humanitarian crises might be created, or humanitarian efforts impeded.
3. Establish an international moratorium on the payment of ransom for hostages, and work in the region to prevent Isis from stealing and taxing historical artifacts and valuable treasures as sources of income, and especially from taking over the oil reserves and refineries in Bayji, Iraq. This would disrupt and prevent Isis from maintaining stable and reliable sources of income.
4. Let Isis succeed in setting up a failed “state” – in a contained area and over a long enough period of time to prove itself unpopular and unable to govern. This might begin to discredit the leadership and ideology of Isis for good.
5. Eventually, if they are properly contained, I believe that Isis will not be able to sustain itself on rapid growth alone, and will begin to fracture internally. The organization will begin to disintegrate into several smaller, uncoordinated entities – ultimately failing in their objective of creating a strong state.

 

Attacking Isis directly, by air strikes or special operations forces, is a very tempting option available to policymakers, with immediate (but not always good) results. Unfortunately, when the west fights fire with fire, we feed into a cycle of outrage, recruitment, organizing and even more fighting. The world just needs to be disciplined enough to let the Isis fire die out on its own, intervening carefully. Isis is wielding a sharp, heavy and very deadly double-edged sword. Now we just need to wait for them to fall on it.