According to Cronin, only 4.4% of terrorist organizations achieve their goals.
- BH fighters often are, indeed, better armed and equipped than the Nigerian government’s forces. BH acquires its weapons and equipment from attacks on government armories as well as, presumably, other sources (Nigeria is inundated with weapons).
- BH never leaves behind its dead, or its weapons. It also stages high-profile jailbreaks to free its captive operatives.
- BH provides payments for widows and children of its fighters.
- BH fighters are regularly paid.
Screen shot from a video released by BH. Many civilians support their cause as they are tired of living in extreme poverty under a corrupt government.
- Finally, at least some BH fighters believe in their cause: the achievement of justice for the poor through Sharia.
VS. NIGERIAN FORCES
- Some observers suggest that government forces simply run away when Boko Haram approaches–that is why the security check points are not manned. Their motivation is fear–well placed fear given that Boko Haram has a long tradition of killing any person in the security services that it can.
Attack on Mafa in Borno State. Nigerian forces fled when attacks began due to being under-armed and out-manned. - Nigerian fighters are poorly equipped with weapons and ammo.
- They do not receive pay on time.
- They do not receive proper medical services.
- Pensions paid to widows and family of fighters are erratic at best.
- In February 2013, Nigerian forces in Mali (ECOWAS- Economic Community of West African States) were forced to ask for food from locals.
Nigerian soldiers cooking at a base in Mali.
goodluck jonathan hasn’t been so lucky in his tactics
Nigerians are irate with Goodluck Jonathan, saying he is not doing enough to combat BH. Instead, (before the recent elections) he primarily focused on his campaign, which prompted youths in three different towns to hurl stones and trash at his electioneering convoy. They were also upset that Goodluck had ordered soldiers to protect his posters and campaign materials instead of sending them to fight BH.
A UK military officer who has worked closely with the Nigerians says they are stuck in a “Catch-22 situation.”
“The trouble with the Nigerian government is that they want a big red button, which you can press and it will fix everything,” says James Hall, a retired colonel and former UK military working with Nigerian forces.
“I was asked by a senior commander if we could sell them the machine that can tell if a car driving down the road contains a terrorist,” he added.
“I tried to tell them that such a machine doesn’t exist, but then they just thought we were hiding it from them.”
Outside actors are wary of giving aid due to the incompetence of the Nigerian forces.
Sources:
http://blogs.cfr.org/campbell/2014/03/04/nigeria-why-are-boko-haram-fighters-successful/
http://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/2014/03/04/boko-haram-attack-nigeria-kills-29
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-27396702
http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/nigerians-angry-at-goodluck-jonathan-s-failure-to-fight-boko-haram-1.2936147