Monthly Archives: April 2015

Power Moves

In recent news, the US Naval warship USS Theodore Roosevelt has been sent to meet up with other aircraft carriers in the waters outside of Yemen to intercept Iranian ships carrying weapons and supplies to Houthi Rebels. The US has been increasing its presence since it has received intelligence of activity in the region. Along with that, the US has also been providing logistical and intelligence support to Saudi forces. The Houthi’s are a Shiite religous group in a Sunni dominated region. They are being backed by Iran to overthrow a US backed government which is why we have so much vested among other things.

Another article I came across was ISIS claims increasing stake in Yemen carnage. This discuss the ongoing power struggle that is Yemen. al-Qaeda and ISIS are taking an increasing stake in Yemen as the countries government dissolves. ISIS has now claimed the Yemen province of Lahj which is usually occupied by AQAP. This has furthered complications in US foreign policy because there main target is being targeted. They now have three parties to operate against.

I tie these articles together by the fact that US is involved in both situations. This complicating US foreign policy is an understatement. What does this mean for the apparent negotiations going on with Iran about nuclear weapons? Is this a power move by the US to give some sort of stabilization to the region while they try to sort out to presence of third party ISIS? Well, time will tell. All of this chaos, is really mind boggling. The US is constantly showing their political realist colors by adapting in every situation. Sometimes we act as enforcers or in other cases nurturers. It’s all because of our self interest. Look at the warship situation. We negotiate with Iran one week and then threaten them the next. But this is not entirely the US’ fault. Many of the activities going on in the region called for this free flowing government.

Panic

The two articles that I found are about recent violence that ISIS has inflicted. The first one is ISIS Beheads Blasphemer and the second is Yarmouk Refugees Describe ISIS Raid. In the first it describes how ISIS has recently increased the severity and frequency of their executions. ISIS recently released some of its most graphic videos and this is added to the all ready blown-up reputation behind them. Many believe this is still just a tactic to promote propaganda to others in the outside world. The second article was about the raid on Yarmouk, a Palestinian refugee camp, by ISIS. After defeating various militias outside of the town, ISIS the proceeded to raid the town, executing residents along the way. Around 5,000 people have fled while other remain trapped in what are calling the “circle of hell” This town is another example of al-Qaeda and ISIS working together to control other powers in the area. It is estimated that 90% of the town is controlled by these two groups and they are actively removing any other operations.

There are two things that I take away from these articles. One is that ISIS is increasing its propaganda for a reason. They are either becoming weaker because of the loss of personnel and need more recruits or because they’re in-fighting. ISIS has recently began cleansing its inner circle of any remnants of Iraqi officers. Could this new surge of recruitment be an attempt to fill the void that is being made by this split in factions. For me, there is no other reason to ramp up killings and take over a weak town but to portray a sense of power that can be maintained even without the powerful influence of for Iraqi officers. Whether this is true or not, ISIS needs the powerful intelligence apparatus more than the apparatus needs them. If this split continues to go in this direction then we may be looking at new more powerfiul  enemy who was in front of the whole time.

New Threat or Old Threat?

I found two articles, U.S. Sees New Threat In Iraq for Sufi Sect and ISIS Rounds up ex-Baathists. Both of these articles are about the Nashqbandi Sufi-Militant group. The first article talks about the initial arrival of the group and its origins. Their leader is Izzmat Ibrahim al-Douri, former Vice President under Hussein. He has been on the US Most Wanted list since the Iraqi invasion of 2003 and this article was released in 2009. The second article read was about ISIS rounding up ex-Baath party officers and eliminating them. Ever since Mosul experienced yet another power change, there has been a rift between ISIS and the Sufi militants who helped put them on the fast track to power in the region. Some feel that these are preemptive measures to control any dissidence within the organization.

These two articles are interesting because of the timeline. In 2009, almost nobody knew who ISIS was but yet this small but powerful sufi militant group was known. Is this just by chance or did Sadam Hussein’s evil genius continue to work even after his death. What else is intersing, is that if ISIS is taking these measures to eliminate former Iraqi officers then they are going to have to eliminate their entire intelligence apparatus. For me, this confirms previous thoughts that ISIS is internally weak. Not because they are not powerful enough but because they not truly believe in what they are doing and anything that has the potential to expose that will be destroyed.

Yemen Alliance and Hussein’s Lingering Influence

The two articles I chose to analyze were Yemen’s Civil War Forges Alliance Between al-Qaeda and ISIS and Sadam’s Ex-Officer: We’ve Played Key Role In Helping Militants.

The first article talks about the chaos that is the Yemen civil war. With the legal government in shambles, there is a power vacuum occurring much like that in Libya and Syria. This power vacuum has allowed militant groups like ISIS to come in and fight for a considerable amount of power. This power will now be amplified by the so-called “unholy” alliance between ISIS and al-Qaeda affiliate, AQAP.  Once sworn enemies are now working together against the rebel Houthis and could soon take over Yemen. The second article was about Izzat Ibrahim al-Douri, a former Iraqi officer under Hussein. In this article, al-Douri claims that ISIS is only a small player in the events that have occurred in Iraq and possibly every where else in the region. There are apparently five major groups operating in the region of which ISIS is not the major player. The major player is Nashqbandi, the group that al-Douri heads. Now this is a bold claim, given the fact that ISIS is in the headlines these days.

These two articles are related in the sense that in one, ISIS is the major player operating in the area, and in one they’re not. These findings that Hussein is still influencing events in the middle east are astounding. Is ISIS just a puppet in the grand scheme of an evil architect? Quite possibly. ISIS’ core group of intelligence officers are almost all former Iraqi officers under Hussein. And now, to learn that ISIS is only one of five forces in the area, I don’t know what to think. Is it all just one big charade? One thing is confirmed for me, ISIS are not true believers and are the true infidels. Those who are sacrificing themselves in the name of freedom and who fight against imperialist are the true believers. Hussein’s officer are only in it for the power and are using religion as a driving force to bring people together.

Power in Libya and Inspiration

Two things that I am interested in researching further are the ways ISIS recruits from all over the world, and what the power status is in Libya. The two articles I read are a few examples of the power struggle in Libya, and a who’s who of foreign recruits.

When it comes to the variety of people fighting for ISIS, there is no shortage. ISIS has field commanders that come from Tunisia, London and as far as America and Georgia of the former Soviet Union. I found numerous articles of tales of the disaffected and even a few Americans who caught the wave of inspiration that ISIS radiates. The article that most caught my eye was,The Secret Life of an ISIS Warlord. This article goes into the life of Omar The Chechen, a top field commander from ISIS. Omar originated from Georgia of the former Soviet Union and was in the Georgian army. Before transferring to the ISIS regime, Omar was also an officer in the Georgian army. Apparently his battle field experience started as a youth, fighting alongside Russian rebels. By the time Omar reached the legit ranks of military, he was prime for war. Omar lead many successful campaigns for the Georgian army and rose through the ranks. A back injury, paired with the death of his mother, would send him into dissolution. Because of his injury, Omar was not able to reenlist and this left a void that could not be filled. Following the departure of his older brother to Libya, Omar went to fight along side ISIS forces. The question to ask now is, how far is ISIS’ reach? If ISIS can recruit a Georgian as well as western foreigners, then how long will this war last? With an apparent pool of to choose from, ISIS is now resourcing talent in interesting ways. ISIS has talented personnel that are savvy in western media, war tactics, organizational skills and anything in between. This could be the source to their success. They are appealing to the easily influenced youth of the modern world, all while sticking to powerful old world spiritual fundamentalism and war tactics of waging jihad that have been used in that area for generations. Is ISIS the pinnacle of the rebel sectarian culture that has dominated the region? If so, then Baghdadi’s claim to being the caliph and bringing forth the 6th caliphate may not be so preposterous. But then again, does Baghdadi truly believe that he is the next Muslim Emperor? It’s not hard to criticize his harsh tactics in conquering land. I don’t think that a true leader of people could be so unsympathetic toward those that don’t believe in what he does especially when that leaders actions completely contradict his beliefs. Be-headings and imprisonment go against the very basic teachings of the Qur’an but ISIL feels that this is the only way to cleanse their land of the infidels, which is the broader and more important goal to them so that they can bring forth the 6th caliphate. It’s almost as if they have reached a status where they reveal to the world that borders and laws are not really finite but things made by the old and western worlds. To them, common cultural beliefs transcend these borders and cannot be defeated because it is an idea and not a thing.

The second article that I found was Tripoli-backed fighters sent to Sirte to confront ISIL. Although ISIL has presence in many places, they are not the only ones in LIbya. Since Moammar Ghadafi was brutally taken out of office, there has been a serious power vacuum. As many a three major groups are fighting for power, all of whom have several smaller rebel groups supporting them. The UN-Recognized government has almost no power in Libya, while other groups are vying for it. Libya has a new contender, ISIL. They are the newest regime to enter the battle realm that is Libya, many of whom have been in place before Ghadafi’s  fall. What does this mean for the future of the middle east? Is Baghdadi’s proclamation of him the new Caliph true? Yes and no. Yes in the sense that ISIL has taken up a considerable amount of actual territory that they control, along with being able to print their own money and passports, which essentially means they are a nation. This is something that al-Qaeda or the Taliban has done or wants to do. I’m certain it is a daunting task to run a grassroots revolution while running a Caliph, as they believe. But is this new occupation of territory an all encompassing  movement of Islamic unity or just the agenda of ISIS while the majority suffers the affects of war. There are highly influential Islamic leaders that feel ISIS is a group of heretics and feel that they are destroying the religion as a whole, which very well might be their intent. Out with the old, in with the new.