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When you have to make a decision, whether its deciding what tile to place on the scrabble board against your English major friend, what your next chess move against your uncle should be or when you’re having a friendly game with friends at Novibet casino, what do you do? Some people will rely on their knowledge and memories of previous games and go from there. Some people will weigh the list of pros and cons of a particular action. Some people will flip a coin.
The science of decision making and strategy development is a fascinating one that has captivated researchers and academics for decades. How do people decide on what to do? What synapses are firing when you need to predict your opponent’s next course of action? Is there even such a thing as a perfect strategy? Whether or not you realise it, when you need to go through such complicated decision making processes, you actually are using a handy-dandy little tool known as game theory.
What is Game Theory?
Although some of us may have grown up more acquainted with the YouTube of the same name, actual game theory is a far cry from conspiracy theories about video game characters. Game theory is a theoretical framework to conceive social situations between competing players. It’s aim is to produce optimal decision making by the players in such competitive settings where the players are bound by rules . Simply put, it’s the science and math of strategy and strategic thinking and its aim is to figure out the most likely outcome in a game.
Game Theory has been used in the social sciences, systems science and computer science for years. It is an invaluable tool in decision making and predicting the behaviors of various parties. It mainly uses logic trees which basically take a problem and attach branches which correspond to various possible solutions. Each solution is then weighed and possible outcomes branch out from it. Outcomes of these outcomes branch out from them and so on and so forth.
By tracing the branches, it is possible to analyze and predict what a logical party might do. Game theory primarily works on the principle that a logical person will try to get the outcome with the greatest benefits to them. It also assumes that players will work within the confines of the rules of the game and won’t try to break them. One particularly famous example of game theory in action is the puzzle of the prisoner’s dilemma.
The Prisoner’s Dilemma
One version of the puzzle goes like this: You have two criminals who are known accomplices. They are being interrogated separately and are kept in separate cells. They are unable to communicate with one another throughout the course of the interrogation, so they have no idea what the other is doing, but they are aware that they have both been arrested. Additionally, they have no idea what will happen in the interrogation prior to it.
The police offer the criminals the following deal: If neither confesses, they both go scot free since the police have no other proof. If one rats the other out, the one who is ratted out serves the full sentence while the one who ratted them out goes free. If both rat each other out, then they both go to jail but will get a reduced sentence.
The criminals know that they both were offered the same deal, but they have no way to communicate or discuss the decision with one another.
So, if you were one of the criminals what would you do?
The (Optimal) Solution
At first glance, you may have been tempted to jump at the chance to rat the other criminal out. After all, that’s the decision that is in your best interest. However, this opens up a can of worms: What if the other criminal also points the finger to you? Even if you’re the only one who confessed, the other person will eventually get out of jail and they know that you were the one who gave them up, what then?
So on second thought you may have decided that you should maintain your loyalty and just keep mum on the subject. However, while it shows the strength of your trust, it also leaves you vulnerable to the most detrimental outcome if you’re the one who gets ratted out.
So those are the only two actions you can take and neither has a guaranteed outcome. What now?
According to game theory, the best outcome is, naturally, for both parties to maintain their silence. Therefore, this problem illustrates the issues that arise from a person always acting in a selfish manner or putting their needs above anyone else. If both parties act in this manner, they will inevitably arrive at a subpar solution which isn’t optimal. So as ironic as it may seem, game theory (despite the premise it’s based on) actually clearly illustrates the need to take a leap of faith and to do what’s best for the group rather than the individual.
Game theory is a fascinating mathematical tool and can be used in a variety of ways. So the next time you’re paralyzed by the seemingly endless choices in a game, consider grabbing a pen and drawing out your logic tree to figure out what the best solution is.